Afghanistan Attacks Pakistan: Unpacking the Border Dispute

This past week, reports emerged of attacks between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with both sides claiming victory and accusing the other. Afghanistan alleges they killed dozens of Pakistani soldiers, while Pakistan claims to have eliminated hundreds of militants. The truth remains unclear amidst the fog of war, but this incident highlights a long-standing and complex rivalry.

Key Takeaways

• Afghanistan and Pakistan share a deep historical animosity, rooted in border disputes dating back to the Durand Line.
• The Taliban, now in power in Afghanistan, views Pakistan's borders as illegitimate and has growing concerns about groups like ISIS.
• Pakistan's past strategy of supporting militant groups has backfired, leading to the rise of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which now targets Pakistan itself.
• Afghanistan's improving relations with India, a rival of Pakistan, are driven by changing geopolitical needs and a desire for development.
• Afghanistan's vast lithium reserves present a significant economic opportunity, with China already making major investments, while India also sees potential for collaboration.

Why The Attacks?

It’s easy to get caught up in the immediate headlines, but understanding this conflict requires looking back. When Pakistan faced accusations of unprovoked attacks during Operation Sindoor, they played the victim. Now, they seem to be using a similar tactic with Afghanistan. So, who really started this latest round of conflict?

We have a timeline of events. On October 9th, explosions occurred in Kabul and Paktika. Afghanistan claims these were Pakistani attacks. Pakistan, however, states they conducted airstrikes targeting leaders of the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP). It's important to note that the TTP and the Afghan Taliban are distinct groups. Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of harbouring TTP leaders, a claim Afghanistan denies. Pakistan has warned that if Afghanistan doesn't control these elements, they will enter Afghanistan to deal with them. However, if the target was TTP leaders, Pakistan needs to prove which specific leaders were killed.

Then, on October 12th, Afghanistan claimed Pakistan sent fighter jets into their airspace. The Taliban government spokesperson stated that in retaliation, they killed 58 Pakistani soldiers and captured 25 army posts. Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shahbaz Sharif, called the attacks unprovoked, asserting Pakistan's innocence. Pakistan responded with artillery fire and closed the Torkham border crossing, a vital trade route, leading to significant truck backlogs. Mediation efforts by Qatar and Saudi Arabia eventually helped de-escalate the situation, and Afghanistan halted attacks. Meanwhile, Afghanistan's Foreign Minister, visiting India, declared that Afghanistan would not tolerate foreign military presence on its soil and warned Pakistan against airstrikes on its border areas.

Why Afghanistan Hates Pakistan

To truly grasp the situation, we need to look beyond the surface. Recently, the Taliban's Foreign Minister visited India and stated that Kashmir is part of India. India is planning to open an embassy in Kabul, and Afghanistan is keen on Indian investment in development projects, assistance with their cricket team, and help in mining their natural resources. This is a significant shift from the past when the Taliban trained militants against India.

Why this change? The times have changed. Afghanistan's current challenges are different. There were discussions about American military bases in Afghanistan, not with the Taliban, but with Pakistan. This was seen as a major insult to the Taliban, who would not tolerate foreign military interference. In some ways, India and Afghanistan's interests now align, whether in cricket or geopolitics. While the people of Afghanistan generally favour India, their relationship with Pakistan is fraught with conflict, a rivalry that predates Pakistan's formation.

Afghanistan was the only country to vote against Pakistan's UN membership in 1947. This animosity goes back further. In the 1830s, as the British Empire expanded in India, Imperialist Russia was also expanding its influence in Asia. This led to a prolonged power struggle known as 'The Great Game'. Britain fought four wars in Afghanistan, trying to maintain it as a buffer zone against Russian expansion and to prevent Russia from gaining access to the sea. Afghanistan, often called the 'graveyard of empires', proved a difficult territory.

In 1893, the Durand Line was established by the British and Amir Abdul Rehman. This border divided Afghanistan and British India (now Pakistan). Some Afghan territories were placed under British India's control. After Afghanistan gained full independence in 1919 and Pakistan was formed in 1947, the issue of the Durand Line remained unresolved. Afghanistan argued that the agreement was with British India, not Pakistan, and therefore should be void after the British left. They also pointed out that the Pashtun people living in border areas were not given a choice about their allegiance. Pakistan attacked these areas in 1949, leading to casualties among the Pashtun population. While the Durand Line was later declared official by the British in 1950, Afghanistan never fully accepted it. Pakistan has historically used Afghanistan as a pawn, even training the Taliban for the CIA. The strategy was to 'bleed India by a thousand cuts' by radicalizing Afghanis to fight Soviets and then send them into India. However, as Hillary Clinton famously said, nurturing snakes means they will eventually bite you too. Pakistan's own creation, the TTP, has become its greatest enemy.

Pakistan's Big Problem

Pakistan often portrays itself as a victim of terror, and while partly true, this trouble is largely self-inflicted. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or Pakistani Taliban, has different goals than the Afghan Taliban. The TTP aims to break Pakistan into smaller parts – separating Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh, and establishing a Caliphate in the FATA region. This is why the TTP continues to attack Pakistan, carrying out over 262 attacks in 2022 alone.

A stark example was the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in 2007, an act attributed to the TTP. Another horrific event was the 2014 attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar, where 134 students and 150 people in total were killed. Pakistan struggles to admit these failures are its own, stemming from the extremist elements it once supported. Instead, they blame Afghanistan. Pakistan's recent airstrikes in Kabul, reportedly aimed at killing TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud, failed. Mehsud later released a video claiming to be safe, demonstrating that Pakistan attacked Afghanistan without achieving its objective.

Lessons For India

What can India learn from this complex situation? Pakistan's global strategy appears to be in disarray. They are trying to maintain ties with China, rebuild relations with America, and even seek a special relationship with Russia. Pakistan seems desperate, like a drowning person flailing for help. World leaders are likely to exploit this desperation until their own needs are met. China needs Pakistan for mining in Balochistan, and America needs it for its military presence in Asia. Once these needs are fulfilled, Pakistan may be discarded.

Meanwhile, as Pakistan seeks new friends, it increases hostility with its neighbours. We've seen conflicts with Iran and Pakistan's alleged involvement in the Pahalgam attack in India. If one neighbour dislikes you, the problem might be you. But if you can't get along with neighbours above, below, and all around you, the problem likely lies with you. In geopolitics, you don't choose your neighbours, but India has good reasons to foster better relations with Afghanistan.

Afghanistan possesses vast lithium reserves, estimated to be worth $1 trillion, earning it the nickname 'Saudi Arabia of Lithium'. Demand for lithium is projected to increase 40-fold in the next 20 years. China, already dominating the EV market, is keenly aware of this and is investing heavily in lithium projects worldwide, including a $10 billion deal with Afghanistan. While this offers potential job creation and development for Afghanistan, China stands to make a massive profit. However, Afghanistan also seeks diversification beyond China and is inviting India for mining projects. This presents a significant opportunity for India. The question remains: should India set aside past grievances and engage with the Taliban for geopolitical and economic benefits? Understanding these future trends is important.